Does A Late Lull Mean A Late Rut?

Research and history would suggest that more or less, the whitetail rut will fall within the same timeframe year after year. The only interruptions seem to be weather (heat), herd ratio, age structure, and possibly hunting pressure. So I'm struggling to explain how the mature buck activity has seemed to stop after the 19th of October. Possibly even more bizarre, is how I'm not even getting nighttime pictures over scrapes or anything. Either the deer are really laying low in anticipation of the energy about to be exhausted on chasing does, or they've left the area.
Since my last post, I've sat three times:
Friday, October 20 Evening (sit #17) - I sat in the stand I put up on the east side of the area where I had been getting pictures of the 6x5 most recently. I saw two lone does that evening. The first one walked behind me at 75 yards through the slough grass and the other was the huge doe and she was out at about 150-175 yards feeding on field grass. Nothing too exciting.
Thursday, October 26 Evening (Sit #18) - After getting sort of frustrated about the sign I was seeing and the lack of pictures on the cameras, I decided to move in a little closer to where I thought the 6x5 had to be living (if in fact he was even still in the area). I had a wind that was switching to the SW which would be perfect to come down the river bank straight into the wind. I told myself that I would only go in there until I found some fresh sign. I found about 6 rubs or so and a couple scrapes and I was only about 200-250 yards from where I thought he was hiding out, so I looked for a set up with good back-cover and shoot-ability and I think I found a great spot. I was right on the bank of the river and I had one trail coming straight at me and a second trail coming by at about 20 yards. I figured that this must be one of the few travel routes he would be taking when he leaves his bedding area. Honestly, if this buck has been living in a 20-30 acre block of mature popples for three weeks, I will be shocked, but a lot wiser for the wear. This buck is old and this buck is smart. This would be a perfect case study for how small a buck's core area can become (if my theory is true). As October has approached its end, I know he must be getting restless in that small of an area and if he is confined to that small of a space, it must be absolutely TORE UP! I need to slip in there will a camera to see if he's moving along that river bank and look for updated sign. I only have a little over a week to kill him before the rut takes him across the township.
Saturday, October 28 (Sit #19) - I finally got a North Northwest wind so I could sit closer to where I had been getting pictures of the 6x5 earlier this fall. As I was getting settled in, I had a doe sneak past me at 12 yards. Too bad I didn't have a bonus tag. No other deer. Again, the 28th being historic scrape day, I did not find any indication that bucks had been any more active than the previous two weeks. I feel like in the next three days, everything has to change and it will change suddenly.
The only interesting things in the last week or two is that they left some beans standing west of the Tweeten woods,

I was able to hang two stands on Steph's birthday, and I've gotten crap for pictures up by Pete's. I pulled the camera I hung NW of Pete's back up by the dozed willows. I had a bunch of young bucks, but nothing exciting. One nice wide two year old:

This little two year old 8 moved into the 6x5 area:

Pencil is just south of the cabin by all guesses, so it should make this rut kickoff pretty interesting.